Bitcoin And Gold May Gain From Geopolitical Tensions, US Election As Investors Brace For ”Catastrophic Scenario,” JPMorgan Says

Bitcoin
and
gold
may
benefit
from
geopolitical
tensions
and
the
upcoming
US
election
as
investors
brace
for
a
potentially
”catastrophic
scenario,”
JPMorgan
said.

The
investment
banking
giant
said
in
an
Oct.
2
note
that
these
developments
would
create
the
conditions
for
a
so-called
”debasement
trade”
that
could
drive
up
demand
for
the
safe-haven
assets.

A
“debasement
trade”
is
characterized
by
rising
gold
demand
amid
heightened
geopolitical
risks,
uncertainty
over
long-term
inflation
rates,
and
persistently
high
government
deficits
in
major
economies,
it
said.

Trump
becoming
president
again
“would
likely
reinforce
the
‘debasement
trade’
both
via
tariffs
(geopolitical
tensions)
and
via
an
expansionary
fiscal
policy
(‘debt
debasement’),”
the
JPMorgan
analysts
said.

JPMorgan
Says
The
Markets
Have
Not
Priced
In
A
Trump
Victory
Yet

Markets
have
not
yet
priced
in
a
Trump
victory,
mainly
because
traders
have
been
too
occupied
with
the


recession

trade
in
the
last
few
months,
the
investment
bank
said.

In
the
event
that
Trump
does
win
and
a
“Trump
trade”
plays
out
in
a
similar
way
to
2016,
the
JPMorgan
analysts
believe
it
could
result
in
higher
US
Treasury
Yields,
a
stronger
dollar,
tighter
credit
spreads
and
US
stock
market
outperformance. 

JPMorgan
Chase’s
CEO:
Trump
‘grew
the
economy’
and
was
‘right’
on
critical
issues​
|
Blaze
Media

Big
finance
is
giving
off
some
interesting
signals
as
the
2024
election
draws
closer,
including
JPMorgan
Chase’s
longtime
CEO
Jamie
Dimon,
when
he
sang
the
praises
of
former…

pic.twitter.com/meoHBZi53Z

—
Owen
Gregorian
(@OwenGregorian)

October
2,
2024

JPMorgan’s
prediction
is
based
on
what
was
observed
in
the
six
month
window
around
the
2016
American
election.
During
this
period,
5-year
Treasury
Yields
rose
1%,
while
the
Dollar
Index
(DXY)
surged
8%
and
US
equities
outperformed
approximately
6%.
Banks
also
beat
the
rest
of
the
S&P
500
index
by
15%.

Bitcoin
Outperforms
Gold
In
The
Last
24
Hours
As
Trump’s
Polymarket
Odds
Slip

The
price
of
gold


reached

a
new
all-time
high
of
2,685.49
towards
the
end
of
September
as
investors
retreated
to
the
financial
safe
haven
with
the
escalating
conflict
in
the
Middle
East.
It
has
since
retraced
to
trade
at
2,643
as
of
8:42
a.m.
EST. 

Over
the
past
24
hours,
the
sought
after
commodity
was
outperformed
by


BTC.
This
is
after
the
leading
crypto’s
price
jumped
more
than
1%
throughout
the
past
trading
session
to
reclaim
a
position
above
the
$61K
mark.

Meanwhile,
Trump’s
odds
of
winning
the
election
fell
by
1%
on
the
decentralized
betting
platform
Polymarket.
Vice
President
Kamala
Harris
saw
her


odds

rise
by
an
equal
amount
to
regain
the
lead
over
her
political
rival.

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