Ledger Works Unveils Groundbreaking Inference Model

By
Kaleb
Nunn

At
Ledger
Works,
we’re
revolutionizing
cryptocurrency
portfolio
risk
management
with
our
groundbreaking
inference
model.
Our
innovative
approach
allows
us
to
estimate
asset
return
distributions
up
to
four
months
in
advance
with
90%
accuracy.
This
level
of
precision
far
surpasses
that
of
ordinary
risk
management
models
used
by
asset
managers
today.

To
demonstrate
the
effectiveness
of
our
methodology,
we
conducted
walk-forward
backtests
using
distinct
simulation
strategies.
One
is
based
on
a
normal
distribution,
while
the
other
utilizes
our
sophisticated
inference
approach.
Both
leverage
advanced
statistical
techniques
for
parameter
estimation,
ensuring
the
highest
level
of
precision.

We
evaluated
the
accuracy
of
these
models
by
comparing
their
forward-looking
predictions
and
goodness
of
fit
against
historical
data,
focusing
on:

• 
  Forecasted
  Confidence
  Intervals:
  The
  range
  within
  which
  the
  estimated
  price
  is
  expected
  to
  fall
  a
  certain
  percentage
  of
  the
  time,
• 
  Kolmogorov-Smirnov
  Test:
  Measures
  how
  closely
  the
  predicted
  distribution
  aligns
  with
  the
  observed
  data,
• 
  Kullback-Leibler
  Divergence:
  Quantifies
  the
  difference
  between
  the
  predicted
  and
  actual
  distributions,
  and
• 
  Skewness:
  Assesses
  the
  asymmetry
  of
  the
  predicted
  distribution.

Our
findings
reveal
that
the
Ledger
Works’
approach
provided
a
more
accurate
fit
for
forward
asset
returns
than
the
normal
distribution,
outperforming
it
across
all
key
metrics.
This
outcome
not
only
highlights
the
superior
performance
of
the
Ledger
Works
approach
but
also
sets
a
new
benchmark
for
backtesting
similar
machine
learning
and
generative
models
in
the
future.

The
full
paper
offers
an
in-depth
exploration
of
our
methodology
and
results,
providing
valuable
insights
for
professionals
in
the
DeFi
space.
If
you’re
interested
in
delving
into
the
complete
research
and
understanding
how
our
approach
can
enhance
your
risk
management
strategies,
contact
us
at
Ledger
Works.
We’re
eager
to
share
how
our
findings
can
help
you
make
more
informed
decisions
and
optimize
your
cryptocurrency
investments.

Feel
free
to
reach
out
to
Ledger
Works
to
access
the
full
paper
and
discover
how
our
cutting-edge
methods
can
benefit
your
financial
strategies.

Contact
Us.