Solana May Explode 9x On Spot Solana ETF Approvals, But XRP And ADA ETFs Are Unlikely, GSR Says

Solana
ETF
products
in
the
US
may
trigger
an
almost
9x
surge
in
the
SOL
price,
but
investors
are
unlikely
to
see
XRP
and
Cardano
ETFs,
according
to
market
maker
GSR.

Solana
now
ranks
among
the
“Big
Three”
cryptos,
alongside
Bitcoin
and
Ethereum,
and
as
such
it’s
only
a
matter
of
time
before
a
Solana
ETF
debuts
in
the
market,
GSR
said
in
a
June
27

report
entitled
”Is
Solana
Next?”

The
report
coincided
with
news
that
fund
management
giant
VanEck
had
become
the

first
asset
manager
to
file
for
a
spot
Solana
ETF
in
the
US.

SOL
Might
9x
On
Spot
ETF
Approval

In
its
optimistic
“blue
sky”
scenario,
the
SOL
price
will
soar
8.9x
on
the
approval
of
a
spot
Solana
ETF
and
take
14%
of
the
inflows
that
spot
Bitcoin
ETFs
have
received
since
launching
in
January.

Its
”baseline”
scenario
sees
spot
SOL
ETF
products
taking
a
5%
share
of
Bitcoin
ETF
flows
and
pushing
up
the
SOL
price
3.4x,
while
its
bear
case
sees
Solana
ETFs
grabbing
a
2%
share
from
Bitcoin
ETFs
and
pushing
up
the
SOL
price
1.4x.

The
report
dismissed
arguments
that
a
spot
SOL
ETF
would
not
launch
soon
because
of
the
lack
of
an
active
futures
market.

GSR
argued
that
the
crypto
regulatory
framework
could
change
soon
given
campaign
promises
by
presidential
hopeful
Donald
Trump.
It
also
believes
that
the
Biden
administration
is
softening
its
stance
towards
the
crypto
industry.

Bloomberg
Intelligence
ETF
analyst
Eric
Balchunas
shared
a
similar
sentiment,
saying
that
a
change
in
the
SEC
leadership
under
a
Trump
administration
would
change
the
outlook.

The
knee
jerk
reaction
here
is ‘oh
this
will
never
be
approved
bc
there
aren’t
Solana
futures’
agree
but..
if
change
at
POTUS
i
think
anything
poss.
Just
imagine
Hester
Peirce
(or
someone
like
that)
running
the
SEC..

—
Eric
Balchunas
(@EricBalchunas)

June
27,
2024

XRP,
Cardano
Will
Not
Get
Spot
ETFs

GSR
believes
that
decentralization
and
demand
are
the
two
factors
that
will
determine
whether
cryptos
are
able
to
gain
approval
for
ETFs,
and
on
those
counts
it
ruled
out
ADA,
XRP,
Near
Protocol
(NEAR),
Avalanche
(AVAX),
and
Aptos
(APT).

Based
on
its
scoreboard,
NEAR
is
the
next
most
likely
crypto
after
Solana
to
be
able
to
launch
an
ETF
product
with
a
neutral
chance.

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