Tide Capital: BTC Sees Volatile Upsurge, Meme Coins Start New Upward Cycle

Abstract

Spot
ETFs
continue
to
bring
incremental
funds,
and
the
upcoming
U.S.
election
will
boost
crypto
assets.
Meme
coins
start
a
new
cycle
and
are
expected
to
become
the
main
theme
of
the
market’s
continuous
uptrend.

ETFs
Continue
to
Bring
Incremental
Funds,
U.S.
Election
Boosts
Crypto
Assets

BTC
Spot
ETF
inflows
slow
down,
market
expected
to
see
volatile
upsurge

Since
the
launch
of
BTC
spot
ETFs
in
January,
net
inflows
have
exceeded
$14
billion,
bringing
substantial
off-exchange
funds
to
Bitcoin.
However,
the
majority
of
inflows
occurred
between
January
and
March,
with
recent
inflow
rates
slowing
down.

From
a
trend
perspective,
BTC
retraced
the
MA120
in
early
May
and
is
currently
stabilizing
above
the
average,
indicating
that
the
market
is
still
in
an
upward
trend.
Looking
ahead,
Tide
Capital
expects
spot
ETFs
will
continue
to
maintain
a
momentum
of
net
inflows,
bringing
long-term
incremental
funds
to
BTC
and
pushing
for
its
volatile
upsurge.

 

ETH
Spot
ETFs
Expected
to
Boost
the
Market,
Correction
Provides
Buying
Opportunity

Compared
to
BTC,
ETH
has
shown
a
slightly
weaker
performance
this
year,
but
the
SEC
unexpectedly
approved
ETH
spot
ETFs
in
late
May,
leading
to
a
nearly
20%
single-day
surge
in
ETH,
once
again
becoming
the
focus
of
the
entire
market.
The
next
main
theme
trend
is
likely
to
remain
highly
correlated
with
ETFs.

It
is
worth
noting
that
the
open
interest
in
ETH
futures
contracts
has
reached
a
historical
high
of
$16
billion.
Once
the
market
experiences
a
correction,
it
may
trigger
further
deleveraging.
However,
this
does
not
mean
the
end
of
the
trend.
Tide
Capital
expects
ETH
spot
ETFs
will
also
bring
substantial
incremental
funds,
and
the
correction
will
provide
a
good
buying
opportunity.

 

The
U.S.
election
is
approaching,
further
boosting
crypto
assets

The
2024
U.S.
election
will
arrive
in
November,
and
political
maneuvering
plays
an
important
role
in
asset
prices.
Looking
at
the
performance
of
capital
markets
during
historical
election
years,
U.S.
stocks
generally
show
a
trend
of
overall
annual
increase,
which
also
has
a
positive
impact
on
crypto
assets.

 

More
importantly,
U.S.
voters’
attention
and
interest
in
cryptocurrencies
are
increasing,
indicating
a
greater
impact
of
cryptocurrencies
in
the
U.S.
election.
According
to
recent
polls
by
Grayscale,
47%
of
voters
expect
their
investment
portfolios
to
include
cryptocurrencies.

 In
view
of
this,
both
the
Trump
and
Biden
campaign
teams
are
actively
embracing
cryptocurrencies
in
hopes
of
gaining
support
from
young
voters.
Looking
forward,
Tide
Capital
anticipates
more
cryptocurrency
ETFs
and
more
mixed
financial
products
containing
cryptocurrencies,
ushering
in
a
long-term
bull
market
for
cryptocurrencies.

 

Altcoins
exhibit
significant
PvP
characteristics,
BTC
and
ETH
remain
better
choices

Compared
to
BTC
and
ETH,
altcoins
generally
show
weakness
in
performance,
with
a
faster
rotation
speed
in
the
market,
demonstrating
severe
PvP
characteristics.
Looking
at
the
overall
situation
of
altcoins
(TOTAL3),
there
is
still
about
a
15%
gap
from
this
year’s
high.

 

The
main
reason
for
this
is
the
lack
of
funds.
In
mid-May,
the
total
size
of
stablecoins
reached
$167.9
billion,
hitting
a
new
high
for
the
year.
However,
since
then,
the
growth
of
stablecoins
has
stagnated,
corresponding
to
the
lack
of
sustained
upward
movement
in
altcoins.

For
the
dilemma
of
altcoins,
perhaps
only
when
BTC
and
ETH
break
through
historical
highs
with
strength
can
it
be
resolved.
At
that
time,
the
market’s
risk
appetite
will
significantly
increase,
more
retail
investors
will
flock
in,
and
altcoins
that
appear
cheaper
than
BTC
and
ETH
will
be
favored
by
funds,
thus
initiating
a
new
round
of
altcoin
season.
As
it
stands,
Tide
Capital
expects
BTC
and
ETH
will
continue
to
lead
the
market.

 

Meme
Coins
Start
a
New
Cycle,
Expected
to
Become
the
Main
Theme
of
the
Market

Looking
back
at
past
bull
markets,
sectors
such
as
DeFi,
Layer
1,
and
GameFi
have
led
the
way
and
become
the
main
theme
of
the
bull
market,
while
the
rise
of
meme
coins
often
signals
the
end
of
the
bull
market.
However,
this
bull
market
is
different
from
previous
ones,
as
mainstream
VC
tokens
are
criticized
by
the
market,
while
meme
coins
are
favored
for
their
fair,
fully
circulated,
community-centric
attributes,
leading
the
rise
ahead
of
other
sectors.

Although
altcoins
as
a
whole
exhibit
significant
PvP
characteristics,
meme
coins
have
emerged
as
winners
in
this
internal
battle.
Looking
at
the
leading
meme
coins
in
terms
of
market
capitalization,
their
gains
in
the
past
30
days
are
quite
impressive,
with
funds
continuously
flowing
into
the
meme
sector
from
other
sectors. 

 

Due
to
the
lack
of
innovation
in
this
bull
market
compared
to
the
previous
one,
old
mainstream
coins
have
lost
some
market
attention
to
some
extent.
Meme
coins,
with
their
low
barriers
to
entry,
strong
communities,
easily
spreadable
culture,
and
fair
tokenomics,
have
attracted
market
attention
and
are
becoming
the
main
theme
of
the
market.

Currently,
the
total
marketcap
of
meme
coins
has
reached
$64
billion,
accounting
for
2.5%
of
the
total
marketcap
of
crypto
assets.
Among
the
top
50
tokens,
meme
coins
occupy
5
positions.
Tide
Capital
anticipates
meme
coins
are
becoming
the
main
theme
of
the
market,
and
the
ceiling
remains
high.

 

Tide
Capital

Tide
Capital
is
a
research-driven
digital
asset
investment
and
trading
firm.
We
study
macro
and
fundamentals
to
capture
beta
and
alpha
opportunities
from
crypto
waves
to
financial
tides.
Driven
by
value,
we
aim
to
invest
in
early-stage
projects
with
significant
growth
potential.
Concurrently,
we
assess
market
cycles
to
inform
our
investment
decisions,
trading
in
the
public
market
to
achieve
returns.

Disclaimer

The
information
and
data
presented
in
this
article
are
obtained
from
public
sources.
Any
advice
and
opinions
in
this
article
are
for
reference
purposes
only
and
do
not
constitute
investment
advice.